Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue fell 37.7% YoY to $119.0M, landing at the high end of guidance; GAAP EPS was $0.07 and non-GAAP EPS $0.10, both above prior guidance that had called for a quarterly loss, aided by cost controls and stable gross margin of 74.1% .
Active earning coaches declined 34.1% YoY to 27.1k and revenue per active coach decreased 5.5% to $4,391, reflecting ongoing customer acquisition headwinds, though management noted sequential moderation in the productivity decline (from -22.2% YoY in Q1 to -5.5% in Q4) .
Balance sheet remains strong with $162.3M in cash, cash equivalents and investment securities, and no debt; 2024 operating cash flow was $24.476M as disclosed on the call .
Q1 2025 guidance: revenue $100–$120M and EPS in a range of $(0.50) to $0.00, reflecting continued first-half pressure; visibility remains limited near term, with management looking for coach productivity to turn positive as an early indicator before coach count growth resumes .
Potential stock reaction catalysts: unexpected positive EPS vs prior loss guidance, stabilization in coach productivity, and early traction from OPTAVIA ASCEND GLP-1 support line; near-term risk is continued coach count decline and elevated SG&A mix from marketing .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Results at/above internal guidance: revenue at the high end ($119.0M) and EPS above a guided loss (delivered $0.07 GAAP, $0.10 non-GAAP) .
- Cost savings execution: “Fuel for the Future” delivered $21M savings in 2024; additional $15–$20M planned in 2025 .
- Strategic positioning for GLP-1 landscape: launch of OPTAVIA ASCEND in December; “approximately 17% of customer orders placed in January included ASCEND products” (early traction) .
- Management quote: “We’re committed to offering solutions that meet the diverse needs of our customers, whether they are focusing solely on our habit-based approach… using GLP-1 medications, or transitioning off them” — Dan Chard, CEO .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line pressure: revenue down 37.7% YoY; active earning coaches down 34.1% to 27.1k; revenue per active coach down 5.5% to $4,391 .
- SG&A mix/efficiency: SG&A was 73.5% of revenue (+400 bps YoY), reflecting 550 bps of company-led marketing spend and loss of leverage on fixed costs, partially offset by lapped non-recurring costs .
- Near-term outlook cautious: Q1 2025 guide implies continued pressure and possible loss; management expects coach count to remain pressured until productivity inflects .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$191.015	$168.558	$140.163	$119.003
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$0.55	$(0.75)	$0.10	$0.07
Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) ($)	$1.09	$0.92	$0.35	$0.10
Gross Margin (%)	74.0%	73.2%	75.4%	74.1%
Operating Margin (%)	4.5%	(4.7%)	1.5%	0.6%
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$6.036	$(8.154)	$1.129	$0.800

Non-GAAP adjustments in Q4 2024 primarily exclude unrealized losses on LifeMD common stock; non-GAAP reconciliations provided in the press release and 8-K .

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Active earning OPTAVIA coaches (000s)	33.9	30.0	27.1
Revenue per active earning coach ($)	$4,972	$4,672	$4,391
Cash, cash equivalents & investments ($M)	$163.5	$170.0	$162.3
Dividend declared per share ($)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00

Notes:

At year-end 2024, 17% of customers had used GLP-1 medications within the prior 12 months; ~44% of coaches supported at least one GLP-1 customer — illustrating deeper integration with the GLP-1 ecosystem .

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (single primary commercial model centered on OPTAVIA).

Guidance Changes

Current guidance issued with Q4 results:

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	$100–$120	New
Diluted EPS ($)	Q1 2025	N/A	$(0.50) to $0.00	New

Q4 2024 guidance vs actual (context from prior quarter):

Metric	Period	Guidance (as of Nov 4, 2024)	Actual	Outcome
Revenue ($M)	Q4 2024	$100–$120	$119.0	High end of range
Diluted EPS ($)	Q4 2024	$(0.65) to $(0.10)	$0.07	Above guidance (positive vs guided loss)

No specific guidance provided for margins, OpEx, OI&E or tax rate beyond Q1 2025 EPS/revenue ranges .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2–Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
GLP-1 strategy and product	Expanded target market to include GLP-1 users via LifeMD; building medically supported weight loss capabilities ; Continued emphasis; Q4 guidance framed within evolving mix	ASCEND launched Dec; 17% of Jan orders included ASCEND; 17% of customers used GLP-1 in last 12 months; 44% of coaches supporting GLP-1 users	Expanding integration; early product traction
Coach productivity and base	Q2: rev/coach $4,972, coaches 33.9k ; Q3: $4,672 and 30.0k	Q4: $4,391 and 27.1k; YoY productivity decline moderated to -5.5% vs -22.2% in Q1	Productivity stabilizing; coach base still declining
Company-led marketing & CAC	SG&A mix rising due to company-led acquisition; 2024 investments and supply chain opt. costs ; Q3: ~590 bps SG&A from company-led initiatives	CAC “not where we’d like,” improving in email/reactivation; 2025 to favor efficient buckets incl. coach comp, reactivation	Optimizing spend mix, focusing on more efficient channels
Cost savings (“Fuel for the Future”)	Supply chain optimization referenced ; ongoing discipline	$21M savings in 2024; targeting additional $15–$20M in 2025	Continued savings; supports margins/liquidity
Liquidity and credit facility	Maintained $170M cash & investments; cancelled $225M credit facility effective Oct 30, 2024	YE cash & investments $162.3M; no debt	Strong liquidity; reduced carrying costs
Guidance visibility	Q2/Q3 provided next-quarter ranges	Q1 2025 revenue $100–$120M and EPS $(0.50) to $0.00; visibility limited near term	Cautious near-term, watching productivity inflection

Management Commentary

Strategy in a GLP-1 world: “We’re committed to offering solutions that meet the diverse needs of our customers, whether… habit-based… using GLP-1 medications, or transitioning off them” — Dan Chard, CEO .
Productivity stabilization: “In Q4 2024, we saw a third consecutive quarter of moderating YoY declines in [revenue per active coach] at -5.5%… from -22.2% during Q1 2024” — Dan Chard .
ASCEND traction: “Approximately 17% of customer orders placed in January included ASCEND products… feedback has been overwhelmingly positive” — Dan Chard .
Cost savings: “Fuel for the Future delivered $21 million in cost savings… anticipate additional $15–$20 million in 2025” — Dan Chard .
Near-term outlook: “We are expecting our first quarter revenue to range from $100 million to $120 million… EPS to range from $0.00 to a loss of $0.50 per share… visibility… limited” — Jim Maloney, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Trajectory of recovery: Management expects coach productivity to turn positive before coach count grows; Q1 2025 likely still pressured on coach count and revenue .
Marketing cadence and efficiency: 2025 company-led spend may be lower than 2024 given less non-working marketing; emphasis on coach compensation and reactivation given better CAC efficiency .
GLP-1 customer dynamics: ~17% of customers used GLP-1 in prior 12 months; majority obtain prescriptions via their own providers; LifeMD used when customers lack a PCP; roughly half of the GLP-1 customer cohort has transitioned off meds .
Cash flow and liquidity: 2024 operating cash flow $24.476M; credit facility cancelled in Oct 2024 due to lack of borrowing need, reducing fees .
Mix vs volume in productivity: Average order value hasn’t changed dramatically; moderation in productivity decline driven more by new/lapsed customer acquisition progress within certain coach groups .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 and prior quarters was not retrievable at this time due to an API request limit; as a result, we do not include estimate vs actual comparisons in this report. Values from S&P Global were unavailable at query time.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term: Print was better than feared vs prior guidance (positive EPS vs guided loss, revenue at high end), which can be a relief catalyst; however, Q1 guide brackets continued pressure, implying cautious start to 2025 .
Execution watchlist: Monitor revenue per active coach as the leading indicator for an eventual turn in total active coaches and revenue; management is explicitly using this sequencing to frame the recovery path .
Strategic optionality: ASCEND creates a clearer lane to serve GLP-1 users and those transitioning off; early adoption (~17% of Jan orders) suggests product-market fit, but sustained customer acquisition remains critical .
Margin/loss containment: Stable gross margin and cost savings ($21M in 2024, $15–$20M planned for 2025) provide cushion while top-line resets; focus turns to SG&A mix and marketing efficiency .
Balance sheet strength: $162.3M cash and investments, no debt, and discontinued credit facility fees enhance flexibility to invest through a soft demand environment .
Risk factors: Continued coach attrition and customer acquisition friction, elevated SG&A mix from company-led marketing, and limited near-term visibility are primary overhangs .
Potential catalysts: Productivity inflection to positive YoY, broader ASCEND adoption, improved CAC via reactivation and targeted campaigns, and any stabilization/improvement in coach counts could pivot the narrative .

Supporting Sources:

Q4 2024 press release and financial statements .
8-K furnishing the Q4 2024 press release and detailed tables .
Q4 2024 earnings call transcript — prepared remarks and Q&A .
Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 press releases for trend analysis and prior guidance .
OPTAVIA ASCEND launch press release (Jan 7, 2025) .

MEDIFAST INC (MED)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary